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Thursday, April 13, 2017
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Dollar edges up but heads for worst quarter in a year
The dollar edged up on Friday and was on track for its strongest week in seven with an almost 1 percent rise, benefiting from a weaker euro as solid U.S. economic data has contrasted with cooling euro zone inflation.
Over the quarter, though, the greenback has fallen 1.7 percent (DXY) against a basket of major currencies, its worst showing in a year, on doubts that U.S. President Donald Trump was not prioritizing - and did not have the necessary power - to push through Congress the economic reforms that had driven the dollar to 14-year highs at the start of the year.
It was up 0.1 percent at 100.46 on Friday, 3 percent down from January's peak.
Revised U.S. gross domestic product data on Thursday showed that U.S. fourth quarter growth slowed less than previously reported as consumer spending provided a boost that was partially offset by the largest gain in imports in two years.
In contrast, German and Spanish consumer price data disappointed on Thursday, showing inflation slowed more sharply than expected in March as oil prices slumped, offering some respite to the European Central Bank as it faces pressure to wind down its monetary stimulus.
The weaker inflation numbers, along with comments from ECB officials and sources suggesting that the market had moved too far in pricing in monetary tightening, have weighed on the euro, which has fallen almost 2 percent in the past four days. On Friday it edged up 0.2 percent to $1.0694 .
"The combination of inflation disappointments as well as a consistent press of ECB rhetoric on market pricing has shifted people out of this very short term but long euro view," said Citi's head of FX strategy in London, Richard Cochinos.
"We also have the French elections at the end of the month, so I think it’s going to be difficult for the market to go and buy a bunch of euros until we get through that."
Inflation data for the euro zone as a whole was due at 0900 GMT .
Later on Friday, Trump will sign executive orders aimed at identifying abuses that are causing massive U.S. trade deficits and clamping down on non-payment of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on imports, according to his top trade officials.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told reporters that one of the orders directs his department and the U.S. Trade Representative to conduct a major review of the causes of U.S. trade deficits, including "currency misalignment".
While the foreign exchange market's reaction to the news was muted, market participants were warily watching for developments.
"From a risk-management perspective, it's definitely something on the radar," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager for State Street Bank and Trust in Tokyo.
The dollar rallied 1.3 percent against South Africa's rand to 13.470 , its highest since early February, after President Jacob Zuma sacked finance minister Pravin Gordhan in a cabinet reshuffle following days of speculation that has rocked the country's markets and currency.
Crude slides lower but remains above $50 mark
U.S. oil slid lower but remained above the $50 a barrel threshold on Friday, as investors locked in profits from the commodity’s recent climb to a three-week high amid hopes for fresh oil supply cuts.
U.S. crude futures for May delivery were down 0.48% at $50.11 a barrel, just off Thursday’s three-week high of $50.47.
On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, the May Brent contract declined 0.47% to trade at $52.88 a barrel, after hitting a fresh three-week peak of $53.12 a barrel earlier in the session.
Crude prices were boosted following reports this week saying that Kuwait and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries support extending production cuts beyond June to balance the market.
OPEC agreed in November last year to curb its output by about 1.2 million barrels per day between January and June. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers have agreed to jointly cut by an additional 600,000 barrels per day.
In total, they agreed to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the first six months of the year, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels.
A joint committee of ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will meet in late April to present its recommendation on the fate of the pact. A final decision on whether or not to extend the deal beyond June will be taken by the oil cartel on May 25.
Markets shrugged off Wednesday’s report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration saying that crude oil inventories increased by 867,000 barrels last week to another all-time high of 534.0 million.
Gold on track for best quarter in a year amid dollar slump
Gold prices traded higher on Friday, buoyed by a weaker dollar, after the release of mostly negative economic data while uncertainty over the outcome of the European elections continued to increase demand for the yellow metal.
Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $2.15, or 0.17%, to $1,247.05 a troy ounce by 13:41 EDT.
Gold prices recovered from a dip earlier in the session, as the dollar slumped to lows, after the latest batch of economic data revealed a slowdown in personal spending and consumer sentiment.
Dollar denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar, as a stronger greenback, makes the precious metal more expensive for foreign holders, which lessens demand.
The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index slipped to 96.9 in March from an initial estimate of 97.6, which was well below economists’ forecast of an unchanged reading.
The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.1% against expectations of a 0.2% increase.
Gold is on track for its best quarterly performance in a year, the yellow metal has benefited from a flight to safety in recent months, as investors sought refuge in the yellow metal amid uncertainty over the outcome of European election and growing concerns that President Trump’s promised economic stimulus package may be delayed.
Upside momentum in the precious metal could be capped in the coming months, as cash crunches in India due to the government’s recent demonetization will likely act as a temporary headwind for gold prices, according to a report from FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Commodities.
Elsewhere, silver futures, gained 0.25% to $18.267, a troy ounce while copper lost 0.62% to trade at $2.655.
Platinum lost 0.38% to $952.05 while Natural Gas shed 0.75% to $3.167.
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