usd jpy short

short  usd jpy@107.800 tp 107.600/107.400/.107.250

xau long signal

buy xau usd@ 1333 tp 1339/1345/1351

NZD/USD facing upside pressure – UOB

24-hour view: “We expected a higher NZD yesterday but did not anticipate a break above last week’s 0.7304 top. NZD managed to move above this level to touch 0.7311 before ending the day just below the high. Upward momentum has improved considerably and further gains would not be surprising. However, last month’s top at 0.7355 is a major resistance and for today, a clear break of this level seems unlikely (minor resistance is at 0.7330). On the downside, 0.7270 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 0.7290)”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “NZD rose strongly and moved above the top of our previously expected 0.7150/0.7305 consolidation range (overnight high of 0.7311). Despite the strong rise, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bullish phase. That said, the immediate pressure has shifted to the upside and a move above last month’s 0.7355 top would not be surprising. At this stage, the prospect for further extension to the year-to-date high of 0.7437 is deemed as low (0.7400 is already a rather strong resistance). Overall, we expect NZD to stay underpinned from here as long as the key short-term support at 0.7240 is intact”.

EUR/USD: Current Situation Uncertain

On Wednesday the 4th of April, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly up. Volatility was consistently high throughout the European session. Still, the exchange rates on the majors didn’t differ much from Tuesday’s closing prices.

The trade conflict between the US and China is weighing down on the dollar, while giving a boost to safe haven assets. I found it interesting that as trade relations between these two nations begin to deteriorate, negative news items are only having a short-term effect on markets. China has announced a 25% import tariff 50bn USD’s worth of American products. In response to this news, the euro shot up from 1.2258 to 1.2314, after which the pair consolidated within a range of 1.2270 – 1.2310. Moreover, stock indices have now completely recovered their losses.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

• 10:15 Switzerland: CPI (Mar).
• 10:15 Spain: Markit services PMI (Mar).
• 10:45 Italy: Markit services PMI (Mar).
• 10:50 France: Markit services PMI (Mar).
• 10:55 Germany: Markit services PMI (Mar).
• 11:00 Eurozone: Markit services PMI (Mar).
• 11:30 UK: Markit services PMI (Mar).
• 12:00 Eurozone: retail sales (Feb).
• 15:30 Canada: imports (Feb), exports (Feb).
• 15:30 USA: trade balance (Feb), initial jobless claims (30 Mar).
• 20:00 USA: FOMC member Bostic’s speech.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

In yesterday’s trading, the euro hugged the balance line during the second half of the day. In Asia this morning, the dollar is trading up against all the majors. The euro has dropped against it to 1.2262.

I’ve adjusted my forecast by lowering my minimum to 1.2259 at the 45th degree and changing my maximum to 1.2305. Earlier today, all of the euro crosses were trading up. Now, they’re all in the red except for the EURJPY and EURAUD pairs. If we start to see a truncated formation on the hourly timeframe, this could entail a drop to 1.2231.

NZD/USD corrects from 3-week tops, weakens back below 0.73 handle

•  A modest USD rebound/pickup in US bond yields prompt profit-taking.
   •  The retracement could be categorized as corrective in nature.
   •  US weekly jobless claims eyed for short-term trading impetus.

After an initial uptick to 0.7322 area, the NZD/USD pair met with some fresh supply and has now retreated over 40-pips from session tops.

Currently hovering around the 0.7280-85 region, the pair has now eroded a part of previous session's strong up-move, which marked a bullish breakthrough a short-term descending trend-line resistance and 50-day SMA. 

A modest US Dollar uptick, supported by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, was seen as one of the key factors weighing on higher-yielding currencies - like the Kiwi. 

In addition to this, possibilities of some profit-taking, especially after the latest leg of an upsurge of 125-pips over the past two-trading session, could have further collaborated to the pair's retracement slide from three-week tops. 

Traders now look forward to the release of weekly jobless claims data for some short-term trading impetus but the key focus would remain on the keenly watched US monthly jobs report (NFP), which might help determine the next leg of directional move.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent retracement is likely to find support near the 0.7240 level, below which the pair seems vulnerable to head back towards the 0.7200 handle en-route the very important 200-day SMA support near the 0.7185 region.

On the flip side, momentum back above the 0.7300 handle is likely to confront some fresh supply near the 0.7330 level, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce and continue lifting the pair further towards the 0.7400 handle.
 

Further rangebound expected in USD/JPY – UOB

24-hour view: “USD dipped below the strong 106.00 support before reversing quickly from a low of 105.97. The sharp and rapid swing higher has improved the undertone and a move above last week’s top near 107.00 could lead to further gains towards 107.30. The latter level is a strong level and is expected to offer stiff resistance. Support is at 106.50 followed by 106.20. The 105.97 is unlikely to come into the picture”.

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD rebounded strongly and regained all and more of the loss made on Monday. As highlighted yesterday (03 Apr, 105.75), we still view last week’s 104.55 low as a short-term bottom and only an unlikely break of this level would indicate that USD has entered a bearish phase. For now, we expect USD to continue to trade sideways, albeit likely at a higher 105.50/107.30 range (instead of 104.80/106.80 expected previously)”.

Qatar says too early to exit OPEC oil cuts as investment still low

DOHA, April 5 (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies should maintain oil supply curbs to guarantee healthy price levels which will allow increased investment in the industry and help avoid a big supply and price shock in the long run, OPEC member Qatar said.

Qatar's Energy Minister Mohammed al-Sada told Reuters he also supported the idea of creating a permanent platform for OPEC's cooperation with Russia even after the current round of joint oil supply cuts ends.

"There is a clear recovery in oil prices. But it has not been met with an increase in investments ... Investment has been very low. My concern is that medium- to long-term demand is met comfortably," Sada said in an interview. "Investors are still cautious and over-conservative".

Sada said that global oil demand was set to rise by at least 1.5 million barrels per day a year or by a healthy 1.5 percent.

But the global oil investment purse of around $400 billion was still too small to guarantee the required level of investment to replace production from mature fields and the launch of new projects.

"I would see the need to keep the (OPEC cooperation) momentum ... We need to restore investments. It could take months ... OPEC could start being concerned about gross over-tightening."

OPEC and its allies led by Russia have reduced production since the start of 2017 to ease a global oil glut stemming from the U.S. shale oil boom that saw oil prices crashing to below $30 per barrel and investment in the oil sector falling by over $1 trillion in the past three years.

OPEC's production restraints have helped cut global oil stocks in industrialized nations from as high as 350 million barrels to as low as 50 million barrels, Sada said.

The tightening of the market propelled oil prices above $70 per barrel this year but also encouraged U.S. shale oil drillers to increase investments and return to record production growth.

"Even with shale, the market is heading for balance," said Sada.

He said record U.S. shale output was almost fully absorbed by demand increases but elsewhere investments were not growing.

Some 6.5 million bpd of U.S. shale production have become an integral part of the global supply portfolio and demand could absorb even more as production was falling in places like Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia and China, said Sada.

Russia has been hinting that OPEC should start considering exiting the cuts sooner rather than later to avoid giving too much of a boost to U.S. shale oil output.

OPEC's leader Saudi Arabia has said cuts could be extended in one form or another into 2019 and also said Riyadh and Moscow were considering a deal to extend their short-term oil cuts alliance to as long as 10 or even 20 years.

Sada said he supported the idea of longer term OPEC and non-OPEC cooperation: "The platform should stay. It is in the interest of everybody. The agreement on supply curbs is another thing".

Gold Prices Slump as Trade Tensions Ease

Gold prices fell on Thursday as risk appetite recovered amid investor bets that recent tariff announcements by the U.S. and China are negotiating tactics and the countries will ultimately reach a compromise.

Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $10.20 or 0.75% to $1,330.00 a troy ounce by 03:30 AM ET (07:30 AM GMT).

Prices of the precious metal had rallied to a one-week high on Wednesday after China announced a fresh wave of tariffs on U.S. imports, in retaliation to a Trump administration plan to impose tariffs on Chinese products.

Worries that protectionist trade policies might result in a full blown trade war boosted safe haven demand for gold, amid fears over the impact on the global economy and U.S. growth.

But trade tensions eased after President Donald Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow said late Wednesday that proposed tariffs on China may not actually take effect and added that there is not a trade war between the U.S. and China.

Market sentiment was also helped by hopes that the U.S. could reach a deal with Canada and Mexico over the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The dollar moved higher as trade concerns eased, with the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rising 0.31% to 107.09.

Investors seek out gold as a store of value during times of political or economic uncertainty, while a stronger dollar makes the dollar-denominated metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Investors were turning their attention to the latest U.S. employment report and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, which could help determine the direction of the dollar.

Signs of increasing wage growth could underline the case for the Fed to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Expectations of rising rates tend to boost the dollar by making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures were down 0.21% to $16.22 a troy ounce, while platinum futures were down 0.52% to $913.30.

Among base metals, copper futures climbed 1.15% to $3.045 a pound, extending their rebound from the previous session’s low of $2.970. Concerns over trade tensions have pressured copper prices since the start of 2018 after they hit a nearly four-year high in December.