xau update

buy gold @1065 stop loss 1060 target 1075/1085/1095

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EUR/GBP outlook

EUR/GBP outlook

• After failing at the 75.90 level, we appear to be heading back towards the lows at 74 pence.
  
  
• Only a move below 74 suggests a move towards 72.55, which had originally been the peaks seen in 2003.       

CMC markets GBP/USD outlook

CMC markets GBP/USD outlook

• We've so far managed to remain above $1.5200 and while we do so the risk of a short squeeze back to $1.5280 remains.
  
  
• We need to push back through the $1.5280 level to keep the prospect of a move towards the $1.5500 level.
  
  
• A move below 1.5200 could well see a retest of the $1.5000 lows last week.       

Oil back up, USD back down

Oil back up, USD back down

• Another day, another >5% swing in oil prices-this time higher overall. 
• That helped CAD and NOK, but no more so than most other majors, as the biggest theme in FX was broad USD weakness. 
• EUR managed to be the marginal top performer alongside DKK. 
• At least part of that support may have come from central bank flows as the Danish Central Bank cut its deposit rate to -0.75% in defense of pressure on the EURDKK peg. 
• That's the fourth cut this ye       

USD/JPY moves lower in dull trading

USD/JPY moves lower in dull trading

• USD/JPY off very moderately in Asia, early high 117.55, low so far 117.27.
  
  
• Large bln 117.00 vanilla options expirations supports.
  
  
• Japanese importer and investor interest seen towards/below 117.00.
  
  
• Offers well ahead of 118.00, option expiries at 118.00, 25-30.
  
  
• More range-trading looked at into tonight's key US payrolls data.        

EUR/JPY sees sellers run into support ahead of pivot

EUR/JPY sees sellers run into support ahead of pivot

• Negative technical outlook
  
  
• EUR/USD has little chance for longs
  
  
• Large EUR/JPY sell order helped bring USD/JPY lower
  
  
• Support seen ahead of 134.17 pivot point       

USD/JPY daily outlook

USD/JPY daily outlook

• USD/JPY is trading in narrow range around 116.80 to 118.85 for the past ten trading session trend is neutral as long as Support 116.80 holds.
  
  
• The pair's minor resistance around 118.20 and any break above will take the pair to 118.85/119.95.
  
  
• On the downside major support is around 116.80 and break below will target 115.80.

Indicators (1 Hour chart)                                                

CCI (50) - Buy

CCI (14) - Buy

Ichimoku- Buy     

gold up dates

buy above xauusd@1265- stop loss 1260 target 1278/1288/1298

EUR/USD spike above 200 hma concerns bears

EUR/USD spike above 200 hma concerns bears

• Pair's spike through the 200 HMA is a concern for short trades
  
  
• The 10 DMA weighs further, just above the market at 1.1358
  
  
• Looks to hold rally attempts. Stops lowered to above the latter
  
  
• Looks to return to Thurs' 1.1262 low, close to the 50% fibo
  
  
• Short target is 1.1261 =  50% of 1.1098/1.1423. 1.1100       

AUD/USD focuses on RBA

AUD/USD focuses on RBA

• AUD back-filled early price gap lower for slight net change post NY close c0.7770
  
  
• Cross performance mixed +0.30% vs JPY tempered by similar % loss vs EUR
  
  
• FX market convinced OIS now pricing 70% chance of 25 bps cut
  
  
• 0.7720 29 Jan low as sup, 0.7800 stays as close topside resistance for now        

USD/INR rallies on short cover, risk off

USD/INR rallies on short cover, risk off

• USD/INR to move above 62.00 on risk aversion, short squeeze
  
  
• Short covering interest ahead of RBI tomorrow
  
  
• Names cited good buyers in the NDFs overnight
  
  
• NDFs traded 61.22-61.45 range overnight, closed 61.35-40 in NY
  
  
• Feb manufacturing PMI data eyed, forecast 53.5 vs 54.5 previous        

eurusd up dates

EURO SUMMARY: The euro opened at $1.1289 after Friday's $1.1278 to $1.1349...

EURO SUMMARY: The euro opened at $1.1289 after Friday's $1.1278 to $1.1349  range, and rose quickly in early dealings to $1.1328, the rise attributed to  cross flows and predominantly against the Swiss franc after a report said the  SNB was operating "a kind of minimum exchange rate against the euro", Schweiz am  Sonntag newspaper said. The euro gains tapered off after that but euro-dollar  held on near the highs. Minor pullbacks were seen as the US dollar also  recovered part of the initial losses against the yen but these were limited to  around $1.1300. Euro-dollar spent the rest of the morning in a narrow range and  last traded at $1.1312. Resistance is seen at $1.1341 marking the 50% fibo  retracement of the pair's $1.1423 to $1.1260 fall. In a note to clients, ANZ's  economists say, "The Greek situation continues to simmer away, but the reality  is that the anti-austerity movement has very little power and must ultimately do  Europe's bidding. The Greek economy has already contracted 25% since the star of  the crisis and with a 25% unemployment rate and high public indebtedness  considerable pain lies ahead.

gold updates

1	gold 2nd target achieved	27/01/2015	21:12:15
2	xauusd 1st target achieved	27/01/2015	20:33:32
3	xauusd buy above@1284 stop loss 1279 target 1289/1294	27/01/2015	18:28:12

            total profit@1000$

USD/BRL eyes 10-dma/tenkan resistance by 2.6065

USD/BRL eyes 10-dma/tenkan resistance by 2.6065

Source: Thomson Reuters

• USD/BRL rises 0.2% in early NY trade, US yields lower as risk exited pre-FOMC
  
  
• Brazilian bank lending rises at slowest pace in 7 years 
  
  
• USD/BRL resistance at 2.6065 10-DMA/Tenkan area, 2.6397 50% Fib of Jan '15 range
  
  
• Support at 2.5825 today's low, 2.5695 daily cloud base, 2.5489 Jan 22 low       

NZD/CAD short term outlook

NZD/CAD short term outlook

• NZD/CAD has formed a triple bottom around 0.9200 and any short term weakness can be seen only below that level.
  
  
• On the downside break below 0.9200 will take the pair to 0.9110 /0.89950 in short term.
  
  
• The pair's minor resistance is around 0.9300 and break above will target 0.9440/0.94780.

Indicators (4 Hour chart)

CCI (50) - Sell

CCI (14) - Buy

Ichimoku- Neutral

Recommendation: Buy NZD/CAD around 0.9275-80, SL 0.9190, Targets 0.9440/0.9470.

USD/JPY bulls trying to force intra-day recovery

USD/JPY bulls trying to force intra-day recovery

• Heavy market showed by long shadows on recent hourly candlestick lines
  
  
• Bulls hurt further by latest hourly close back below 118.07 pivot point
  
  
• Spot sold since Asia came in, down from the 118.66 session high
  
  
• Nikkei futures have been softer side in Europe
  
  
• 48/72 hr log correlation between Nikkei futures & spot is +0.55/+0.66       

US DATA: Retail Economist-Goldman Sachs (TRE-GS) Weekly Chain Store Sales

US DATA: Retail Economist-Goldman Sachs (TRE-GS) Weekly Chain Store Sales Index...

US DATA: Retail Economist-Goldman Sachs (TRE-GS) Weekly Chain Store Sales Index  (the old ICSC) declined by 0.6% compared with the prior week for the period  ending January 24. On a year-over-year basis, sales advanced by 2.6% - the  weakest reading since the end of December. "The week's performance was quite  uneven compared with the same week of the prior year with business at wholesale  clubs and dollar stores very strong, but very soft at the hardline retailers,"  economist Mike Niemira said. He added that, "Over the past week, temperatures  also were abnormally warm across the U.S., which tends to dampen the 'weather  catalyst' for seasonal-goods demand. However, weather forecasts for heavy snow,  this week, from an Alberta Clipper system traveling from the Midwest to the east  coast-dubbed the 'Blizzard of 2015'-likely spurred consumers in the affected  region to stock-up on staples and snow gear ahead of that storm.

EUR/CAD short term outlook

EUR/CAD short term outlook

• EUR/CAD has recovered to 1.4125 after making low of 1.3802. Canadian dollar is expected to trade weak further in the coming weeks after BOC surprised markets with 25bpbs rate cut in previous week.
  
  
• The pair's minor support is around 1.3880 and any break below will target 1.3800/1.3760.
  
  
• On the upside any break above 1.4175 will take the pair to 1.4278/1.4350 in short term.
  
  
• The minor support is around 1.4000.

Indicators (4 Hour chart)      

CCI (50) - Buy

CCI (14) - Buy

Ichimoku- Buy

Recommendation: Buy EUR/CAD around 1.4080-90, SL 1.4000, Targets 1.4350.

EUR/USD weighed by plethora of technical resistance

EUR/USD weighed by plethora of technical resistance

• Pair's recovery weighed by plethora of technical resistance
  
  
• Current 1.13455 high, tries to sustain break of 1.1322 pivot point
  
  
• Failure ahead of pivot at 1.1407
  
  
• 50% & 61.8% fibo retraces of sell off from 1.1680 at 1.1359 and 1.1458
  
  
• 100 HMA & 200 HMA at 1.1358 & 1.1474. Sell into rallies       

EURUSD PROFIT CALL

1	EURUSD ALL TARGETS ACHIEVED	27/01/2015	14:12:06
2	EURUSD 2ND TARGET ACHUIEVED	27/01/2015	13:53:53
3	buy EUR/USD 1.2480 stop loss 1.2200 target 1.2680/1.2880/1.30000	27/01/2015	10:16:55

  PROFIT @520$

EUR/USD NEWS

The EUR/USD retreated early in the session after the anti-austerity Syriza party emerged victorious in the Greek snap elections. Driving the market lower were comments by Greek leftist leader Alexis Tsipras who promised that five years of austerity, "humiliation and suffering" imposed by international creditors were over after his Syriza party swept to victory in a snap election on Sunday. Some traders believe that a successful campaign by Greece to obtain debt relief could lead to similar challenges in Spain...

The ECB's QE announcement and the Greek elections are behind us. The euro has fallen quite a bit so far this month.

Yet also for the last week of January, the team at Barclays sees further room to the downside. Here are the explanations and the chart:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Currency investors should consider staying short EUR/USD this week, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.

The trade is macro-technical driven. On the macro front, Barclay's rationale is as follows:

"We expect the Fed to make few changes to the policy statement on Wednesday and maintain their baseline case of gradual policy normalization starting around mid-2015. This will highlight the contrast with ECB's dovish policy stance and likely provide additional boost for the USD against EUR," Barclays projects.

"There is a busy week ahead with the FOMC rate decision (Wednesday) and a series of key cyclical activity data such as durable goods, new home sales, consumer confidence (all on Tuesday) and Q4 GDP (Friday). While inflation and wage data have surprised to the downside lately, they are likely to look through one-month of soft numbers and we expect them to maintain the existing policy stance with few changes to the statement, signaling to the market that their baseline case of gradual policy normalization, around mid-2015 or later, remains intact," Barclays clarifies.

"On the data front, Q4 GDP will be the highlight and we expect another solid outcome as suggested by ISM, looking for 3.5% q/q (consensus: 3.1%). For others, we expect goods orders ex-transportation of 1.5% m/m (consensus: 0.6%), new home sales of 442K (consensus: 450K) and consumer confidence of 96.0 (consensus: 95.0). Overall solid economic data and confirmation of the Fed's policy stance would support USD, especially against those currencies with low yields and accommodative policy stance such as EUR and JPY," Barclays adds.

On the EUR data front, Barclays is slightly below consensus in expecting HICP inflation to have declined to -0.6% y/y in January from -0.2% previously (consensus: -0.5%), while being in line with the market in forecasting core inflation to have remained unchanged at 0.7% y/y.

"Underpinning our forecast, we expect German preliminary consumer prices to have declined to -0.3% y/y from +0.1% previously (consensus: -0.2%; Thursday) and Spanish HICP inflation to have fallen to -1.5% y/y from -1.1% previously (consensus: -1.5%; Friday). However, EUR reaction to any downside surprises may be more muted relative to history as market participants continue to assess the likely impact of the ECB's recent expanded asset purchase programme," Barclays projects.

On the technical front, Barclays' rationale is as follows:

"Given that the declines off major peaks since 2008 have averaged 21%, we are looking for further downside towards 1.1050 initially (marking a 21% decline off the 1.3995 high). A break below 1.1050 would signal further downside towards greater targets near 1.0765, the September reactions lows and approximately 23% decline off the May 2014 highs," Barclays projects.

GOLD,CRUDE AND COPPER UP DATES

Gold prices dipped in Asia on Thursday with investors focused on an upcoming European Central Bank meeting expected to further ease policy.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery fell 0.22% to 1.290.80 a troy ounce in Asia.

Overnight, gold remained above the $1,300-level on Wednesday, after data showed that the number of building permits issues in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in December, while housing starts topped forecasts, painting a mixed picture of the U.S. housing sector.

Also on the Comex Thursday, silver futures for March delivery eased 0.40% to trade at $18.120 troy ounce, the highest level since September 19.

In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that the number of building permits issued last month decreased by 1.9% to 1.032 million units from November's total of 1.052 million.

Analysts expected building permits to rise by 1.3% to 1.055 million units in December.

The report also showed that U.S. housing starts rose by 4.4% last month to hit 1.089 million units from November's total of 1.043 million units, compared to expectations for a reading of 1.040 million.

Gold is up 10% so far in 2015, while silver has gained almost 15%, as investors sought safety from volatility in global financial markets.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for March delivery gained 0.05% at $2.607 a pound, recovering from an overnight drop.

The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for 2015 on Tuesday to 3.5% from a previous estimate of 3.8%, citing slowing economies in China, Russia, the euro zone and Japan.

Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of its widespread uses across industries. The red metal is down approximately 10% so far in January.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.01% to 93.00.

The euro edged higher against the greenback, but sentiment on the single currency remained vulnerable amid growing expectations the European Central Bank will embark on an outright quantitative easing program on Thursday, in a bid to stave off the threat of deflation in the euro area.

Uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections, due to be held on Sunday, with anti-bailout party Syriza leading in the polls also weighed.