Dollar edges up, on track for weekly gains

The dollar edged up in Asian trading on Friday, poised for weekly gains after solid U.S. economic data contrasted with figures showing euro zone inflation cooling. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.1 percent at 100.50 (DXY), up 0.9 percent for the week and not far from a two-week high of 100.60 hit overnight. The euro nursed losses, up 0.1 percent on the day at $1.0681 but down 1.1 percent for the week. German and Spanish consumer price data released on Thursday showed inflation slowed more sharply than expected in March as oil prices slumped, offering some respite to the European Central Bank as it faces pressure to wind down its monetary stimulus. Revised U.S. gross domestic product data on Thursday showed that U.S. fourth quarter growth slowed less than previously reported as consumer spending provided a boost that was partially offset by the largest gain in imports in two years. "The number itself wasn't great but the forward-looking indicators look pretty good," said Jennifer Vail, head of fixed-income research for US Bank Wealth Management in Portland, Oregon. "You're probably going to see some modest reaction to the softness we're seeing in the eurozone, as it looks like some of the inflation data is not as strong as initially thought," she said. "I think the reason you didn't see more substantial dollar strength is concerns on the lack of conviction that our new president had in getting ACA repealed." Republicans withdrew their bill a week ago to replace and repeal the Obama administration's Affordable Care Act (ACA) due to lack of support in Congress, raising concerns that President Donald Trump's tax reform and stimulus measures might also face legislative challenges. Trump lashed out on Thursday at Republican conservatives who helped torpedo the healthcare legislation, escalating a feud within his party. Against its Japanese counterpart, the dollar was flat on the day at 111.98 yen , up 0.5 percent for the week. Data released on Friday showed Japan's core consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in February from a year earlier, marking the fastest annual pace in nearly two years but still distant from the central bank's ambitious 2 percent target. Japan's business year ends on Friday. The dollar was on track to lose 0.6 percent against the yen for the fiscal period. Sterling edged up 0.2 percent to $1.2490 , on track for a slight gain in a week marked by volatile trading in a week in which British Prime Minister Theresa May formally triggered the Brexit process. The dollar rallied 1 percent against South Africa's rand to 13.410 , its highest since early February, after President Jacob Zuma replaced the country's finance minister. Zuma appointed Malusi Gigaba to replace Pravin Gordhan who was sacked in a cabinet reshuffle late on Thursday evening, eNCA television said.

Crude dips in Asia on profit-taking, rig count, Trump-Xi eyed

Crude oil dipped in Asia on profit taking after three days of gains and despite upbeat figures from China on manufacturing and services for March that gained more than expected in cautious trade as U.S. rig count data lies ahead and markets look to a meeting between President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping in Florida that is seen as high stakes on trade. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for May delivery dipped 0.34% to $50.18 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent eased 0.41% to $52.91 a barrel. China's semi-official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8, the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) said Friday, beating the expected 51.6 level and releasing the figures one day ahead of the normal first of the month release and ahead of the Caixin PMI figures. Earlier in Japan, household spending for February slumped 3.8% year-on-year, compared to a 1.7% decline seen. On a monthly basis however it rose 2.5%, beating the expected 0.4% rise. Separately, national core CPI fell 0.2% for February year-on-year as expected, while unemployment dipped to 2.8% from 3.0%. Provisional industrial production for February rose 2.0% month-on-month, beating the expected 1.2% increase. Market participants turn attention to Baker Hughes rig count, due to be released on Friday at 13:00 EDT. Data last weekrevealed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 21, the tenth weekly increase in a row. That brought the total count to 652, the most since September 2015. The White House said Trump would host Xi next Thursday and Friday at his Mar-a-Lago retreat in Florida. It said Trump and his wife, Melania, would host Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, at a dinner next Thursday. Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Thursday, amid optimism that an OPEC led production cut deal would be extended beyond June, following bullish comments from Kuwait oil chief Essam al-Marzouq. Crude futures settled above the key $50-level, as crude prices hit a three-week high of $50.45, after Kuwait oil minister Essam al-Morzouq said his country was among several nations that supported the idea of extending the current deal between OPEC and non-OPEC members beyond June. In November last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in an effort to combat the oversupply issue that has pressured prices over the last two years. OPEC members have been high compliance with the deal to cut supply, which came into effect in January this year, while a ramp up in U.S. production of shale and crude has weighed on oil prices. Despite, a dip in crude inventories on Wednesday, crude stockpiles remain at record highs – at over 520 million barrels, current crude supplies are up 6% over the past year. Rising U.S. crude stockpiles sparked concerns that OPEC may struggle to drain the glut in supply.

march 3o th profit

Trump to seek tariff 'snap-back' provision in NAFTA revamp: letter

The Trump administration will seek changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement allowing it to reimpose tariffs if a flood of imports from Canada and Mexico causes "a threat of serious injury" to U.S. industry, according a draft document sent to Congress. The administration also will seek to eliminate a requirement in the 23-year-old trade deal that anti-dumping and anti-subsidy disputes be settled via a special dispute panel. Some U.S. industries including lumber have complained that the mechanism is ineffective in stopping unfair subsidies. The objectives are contained in a draft notification letter circulated by the U.S. Trade Representative's office to members of Congress for review. The letter, seen by Reuters, is part of the legal process required to launch negotiations to revamp the NAFTA. President Donald Trump called NAFTA a "disaster" throughout the 2016 election campaign, but the plan outlined in the letter would keep many of its provisions in place, including a settlement system for other disputes that circumvents local courts. "The persistent U.S. deficit in goods trade with Canada and Mexico demands that this administration take swift action to revise the relationship to reflect and respond to new 21st century challenges," Acting USTR Stephen Vaughn said in the letter, which is subject to revisions before it is finalized. Another draft objective says the administration wants “to establish rules that require government procurement to be conducted in a manner that is consistent with U.S. law and the administration’s policy on domestic procurement preferences,” This could allow for Trump's "Buy American" plan, but also cause U.S. companies to lose business in Mexico and Canada. The document also calls for protections of digital trade and commerce, tougher intellectual property enforcement and requirements that state-owned companies operate in a commercial fashion. The draft proposal is subject to revision, and the administration must give Congress 90 days’ notice under trade law before beginning formal NAFTA renegotiations. Trump has long vilified NAFTA as draining millions of manufacturing jobs to Mexico, and he has vowed to quit the trade pact unless it can be renegotiated to shrink U.S. trade deficits.

U.S. natural gas futures stay lower after weekly storage data

U.S. natural gas futures declined on Thursday, holding on to losses after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. fell broadly in line with market expectations last week. U.S. natural gas for May delivery shed 3.4 cents, or around 1.1%, to $3.197 per million British thermal units by 10:35AM ET (14:35GMT). Futures were at around $3.196 prior to the release of the supply data. It settled higher for the second day in a row on Wednesday after touching its strongest January 31 at $3.253 The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. declined by 43 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 24, compared to forecasts for a drop of 42 billion. That compared with a withdrawal of 150 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, a decline of 25 billion a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 27 billion cubic feet. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.049 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 17.1% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 12.2% above the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor shifting early-spring weather forecasts. Weather systems will track across the country the next several days with rain, snow, and thunderstorms, but with limited cold air as they play out spring-like, according to forecasters at NatGasWeather.com. There remains potential for a bit colder system from April 7 through the 10th and will be dependent on how a weather system tracking over the southern U.S. phases with a cold blast over the Midwest. Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts on early-spring demand. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Dollar index struggles to hold 100 mark

The dollar index Thursday struggled to hold the 100 mark despite relatively upbeat U.S. economic data. The dollar index was up 0.09% at 09:45 ET at 99.87 after a high of 100.09, it highest level since March 21. U.S. Q4 GDP growth was revised up to 2.1% from an earlier reading of 1.9%. Initial weekly jobless claims fell but by less than expected. The dollar index was aided by a weaker euro, which fell 0.21% to $1.0742. Reuters Wednesday reported the ECB does not intend to change its dovish guidance on monetary policy. The pound was up 0.64% at $1.2515, recovering from lows posted on the U.K. triggering Brexit. The dollar firmed 0.09% to 111.15 yen.

Forex - USD/CAD edges lower as oil prices climb

The U.S. dollar edged lower against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, despite the release of strong U.S. economic reports, as a jump in oil prices boosted demand for the commodity-related Canadian currency. USD/CAD hit 1.3305 during early U.S. trade, the pair’s lowest since March 21; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3306, down 0.17%. The pair was likely to find support at 1.3262, the low of March 21 and resistance at 1.3401, Wednesday’s high. The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion. Analysts had expected a growth rate of 2.0%. Separately, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims declined by 3,000 to 258,000 in the week ending March 25 from the previous week’s total of 261,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to fall by 13,000 to 248,000 last week. But the Canadian dollar was also supported as oil prices rose sharply on Thursday, helped by ongoing supply disruptions in Libya. The loonie was also higher against the euro, with EUR/CAD declining 0.53% to 1.4269.

As Fed Speeches Dominate, Gold Heads South

This week, speeches of most of the FOMC’s twelve members were scheduled to take place . What can we learn from them? The current week is dominated by the next round of Fed officials’ speeches. Although some of the events – including Yellen’s speech on Thursday – are yet to come, let’s analyze what has already been said. On Monday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans noted that the economy’s performance might justify three hikes this year, but the Fed might raise interest rates four times, if the economy really takes off (or just twice, if uncertainty increases). On the same day, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that he would back more interest rate increases as long as the economy saw gains. On Tuesday, Kansas Fed President Esther George pointed out that she needed more details on the Trump administration's fiscal proposals to factor them into her economic forecasts, while the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told reporters that the FOMC’s median estimate for three hikes this year seemed about right. On balance, the presented remarks did not bring anything new, as the Fed’s officials reiterated that inflation is on the way to reach Fed’s target, but that many uncertainties remain. However, they reminded investors of rate hike plans. Indeed, the market odds of a June hike increased from 49.6 to 54 percent. The recent economic data could also reinforce the rate hike expectations, as new orders for durable goods increased 1.7 percent in February, while consumer confidence surged in March to a 27-year high. This is why the US Dollar Index edged up yesterday, while gold prices went south. However, the uncertainty about Trump’s policy seems to provide support for the yellow metal. Investors should remember that consumer and business confidence is not hard data, but subjective opinions – for example, confidence was high before the financial crisis. Another example: Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index declined from 54.1 in February to 53.2 in March, signaling the slowest expansion of private sector output since September 2016. It seems that the confidence is high due to the elevated expectations about Trump’s economic agenda. Although the new administration is determined to fulfill its promises, the failure of Trumpcare signals that it will not go as smoothly as expected. Anyway, there are still a few Fed speeches left – and they can affect the gold market. Stay tuned! Disclaimer: Please note that the aim of the above analysis is to discuss the likely long-term impact of the featured phenomenon on the price of gold and this analysis does not indicate (nor does it aim to do so) whether gold is likely to move higher or lower in the short- or medium term. In order to determine the latter, many additional factors need to be considered (i.e. sentiment, chart patterns, cycles, indicators, ratios, self-similar patterns and more) and we are taking them into account (and discussing the short- and medium-term outlook) in our trading alerts.

U.S. jobless claims fall by 3,000 to 258,000 last week

The number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell less than expected, but held near the lowest level since March 1973, underlining optimism over the health of the labor market. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending March 25 declined by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 from the previous week’s total of 261,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to fall by 13,000 to 248,000 last week. The four-week moving average was 254,250, up 7,750 from the previous week. The monthly average is seen as a more accurate gauge of labor trends because it reduces volatility in the week-to-week data. Continuing jobless claims in the week ended March 18 rose to 2.052 million from 1.987 million in the preceding week. Analysts had expected continuing claims to inch up to 2.020 million. USD/JPY was at 111.34 from around 111.23 ahead of the release of the data, EUR/USD was trading at 1.0734 from around 1.0743 earlier, while GBP/USD was at 1.2457 from 1.2465. The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was at 100.00, compared to 99.94 ahead of the report. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly lower open. The blue-chip Dow futures shed 16 points, the S&P 500 futures dipped 2 points while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures fell 5 points. Elsewhere, in the commodities market, gold futures traded at $1,246.70 a troy ounce, compared to $1,249.80 ahead of the data, while crude oil traded at $49.84 a barrel from $49.81 earlier.

Forex - Dollar index holds onto gains after upbeat U.S. data

The dollar remained broadly higher against other major currencies on Thursday, after the release of upbeat U.S. economic growth and jobless claims data added to optimism over the strength of the economy. EUR/USD slipped 0.28% to 1.0735, the lowest since March 21. The dollar was supported after official data showed that the third estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product was at 2.1%, up from the previous reading of a 1.9% expansion. Analysts had expected a growth rate of 2.0%. Separately, the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims declined by 3,000 to 258,000 in the week ending March 25 from the previous week’s total of 261,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to fall by 13,000 to 248,000 last week. Meanwhile, the euro remained under pressure after Reuters reported on Wednesday that European Central Bank policymakers are wary of adjusting their policy message in April amid concerns over a potential surge in borrowing costs in the bloc’s periphery. Elsewhere, GBP/USD edged up 0.18% to 1.2457. Sterling initially weakened after British Prime Minister Theresa May formally began Brexit proceedings on Wednesday, launching a two-year negotiation process before the divorce comes into effect in late March 2019. USD/JPY rose 0.24% to 111.33, while USD/CHF held steady at 0.9969. The Australian dollar was little changed, with AUD/USD at 0.7671, while NZD/USD shed 0.24% to 0.7014. Meanwhile, USD/CAD fell 0.11% to trade at 1.3314. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.24% at 100.02, the highest since March 21.

Oil flat as supply glut concerns weigh

Oil was mostly flat Thursday as concerns about a supply glut wiped out earlier gains amid disruption to Libyan output. U.S. crude was unchanged at $49.51 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude shed 10 cents, or 0.19%, to $52.44. The Energy Information Administration reported a lower than expected rise in U.S. crude inventories. Stockpiles still remain at record highs of 534 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected. Higher U.S. supply and inventories continue to weigh on the market. That is undermining the impact of production cuts by major producers. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. There are expectations the cuts could be extended beyond June.

GBPJPY

BUY GBP JPY @ 138 SL 137.50 TARGET 139/140

Gold extends retreat from 1-month highs as dollar gains ground

Gold prices edged lower for a third straight session on Thursday, adding to their decline from a one-month high reached at the start of the week as the dollar strengthened amid expectations for more U.S. interest rate hikes this year. Comex gold futures dipped $3.20, or around 0.3%, to $1,250.50 a troy ounce by 3:00AM ET (07:00GMT). Meanwhile, spot gold was down $2.50 at $1,251.10. Gold hit its strongest since February 27 at $1,264.20 on Monday. Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery shed 6.4 cents, or about 0.4%, to $18.18 a troy ounce. In the previous session, the metal touched its highest since March 2 at $18.27. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 99.86 in London morning trade. It rose to an overnight high of 99.99, extending a bounce off a four-and-a-half month low of 98.67 touched on Monday. The greenback was boosted by hawkish comments from a number of Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday, including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. There are three more Fed speakers on the calendar for Thursday. New York Fed chief William Dudley is expected to be the most important, with a 4:30PM ET discussion on financial conditions and monetary policy. San Francisco Fed President Williams speaks at 11AM ET, while Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks at 3PM in New York. On the data front, investors will have initial jobless claims and the final look at fourth quarter GDP, both released at 8:30AM ET. The Fed raised interest rates earlier this month and stuck to its outlook for two more hikes this year. Fed fund futures priced in around a 50% chance of a rate hike in June, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 70%. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Headlines from Washington will also be in focus, as traders await further details on President Donald Trump's promises of tax reform following the House's failure to vote on a plan to replace Obamacare last week. Elsewhere in metals trading, platinum tacked on 0.4% to $959.70, while palladium declined 0.3% to $787.62 an ounce. May copper futures dropped 1.4 cents, or 0.5%, to $2.662 a pound.

usd jpy signal

buy usd jpy @ above 111.045 sl 110.80 target 111.30/111.45/111.85

Oil up on Libya disruptions, but bloated U.S. market still weighs

Oil prices rose on Thursday, extending two days of increases as supply disruptions in Libya lifted the market, although bloated U.S. crude inventories curbed gains. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures (LCOc1), the international benchmark for oil, were at $52.53 per barrel at 0659 GMT, up 11 cents from their last close. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) rose 17 cents to $49.67 a barrel. The increases extended two days of gains which supported Brent well above $50 a barrel and lifted WTI within sight of that level. Traders said supply disruptions in Libya were lifting the market and that falling U.S. gasoline inventories pointed to a tightening market there despite record crude stocks. "While crude stocks did build, the build was significantly lower than expected. Product stocks, on the other hand, drew a lot more than expected. This information, combined with the supply disruption in Libya was good enough to give the market cause to buy eagerly," said Sukrit Vijayakar, director of energy consultancy Trifecta. U.S. gasoline stocks fell 3.7 million barrels in the week ending March 24, compared with expectations for a 1.9-million barrel drop, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories , however, rose 867,000 barrels to a record of nearly 534 million barrels. Key for the direction of oil prices will be whether an initiative led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil production during the first half of the year will be extended, and how high compliance with the reduction targets will be. OPEC, along with other producers including Russia, aims to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year. OPEC compliance with its targets is expected to be 95 percent this month, up from 94 percent in February, according to Reuters surveys. "This is extremely good for the cartel as it has helped them get a 10-15 percent increase in prices for 3 months now," Vijayakar said. However seems lower by non-OPEC members like Russia, who have officially agreed to participate in cutting. "Russia's 300,000 bpd cut commitment particularly has been called into question," Eurasia Group said this week in a research report. "It is highly unlikely Russia will achieve an absolute 300,000 bpd reduction during the tenure of the current agreement," it added. As markets remain bloated halfway into the curbs, there is a broad expectation that the supply cuts will be extended into the second half of the year.

Dollar edges up to nine-day high, buoyed by euro weakness

The dollar edged up to a nine-day high against a basket of currencies on Thursday, with the euro sagging as the European Central Bank showed no sign of stepping away from monetary easing anytime soon. The U.S. currency was up 0.3 percent at 111.385 yen , putting some distance between the four-month low of 110.110 it plumbed on Monday. The euro dipped 0.2 percent to $1.0745 , having drifted down from a 4-1/2-month high of $1.0906 scaled on Monday. The common currency had dropped about 0.5 percent overnight following a report by Reuters that European Central Bank policymakers were wary of changing their policy message after tweaks this month had raised expectations of the central bank ending its super-easy policy and eventually hiking interest rates. "The market may have gotten ahead of itself on its expectations towards the ECB ending its easy policy and the news helped temper such speculation," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. "That said, the ECB seems set on finding a way out of its easy policy, so it would be difficult for the euro to keep declining. It is no longer a case of the euro being sold on easy policy expectations, with German bund yields settled firmly in positive territory." The euro was boosted earlier in the month by a report that the ECB had discussed the possibility of raising interest rates before the end of its quantitative easing program. The pound inched up 0.1 percent to $1.2450 following choppy moves the previous day. Sterling swung between $1.2478 and an eight-day low of $1.2377 on Wednesday before ending little changed, unable to find clear direction from Britain's formal triggering of its exit from the European Union. "We expect the triggering of Article 50 to initiate a 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' rebound in GBP from historic undervaluation as ambiguity over Brexit recedes," currency strategists at Barclays (LON:BARC) wrote, saying the markets had overestimated the downside to the pound resulting from Brexit. Others, however, saw downside risks to sterling amid potential upcoming political uncertainty and the possibility of Britain not being able to reach an exit deal with the EU during their two-year negotiation period. HSBC sees the pound falling to $1.10 by the end of 2017 and the euro, currently around 86.40 pence, advancing to parity with sterling. The dollar index against a group of major currencies was up 0.1 percent at 100.100 after rising overnight to 100.140, its highest since March 21. The greenback was also boosted by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who said he was in line with most of his colleagues in supporting further rate hikes this year. The dollar benefited as some of the dust began to settle after its tumble earlier in the week to 4-1/2-month lows. The currency slumped on Monday after the U.S. House of Representatives pulled a bill to overhaul U.S. healthcare insurance, which knocked the wind out of the dollar-supportive "Trump trade." The Australian dollar lost 0.1 percent to $0.7665 and the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.2 percent to $0.7021 against the resurgent dollar.

Dollar index eyes 100 as Fed beats tightening drum

The dollar index moved closer to the 100 mark as Fed members indicated further tightening this year. The dollar index was up 0.10% at 02:30 ET at 99.88. The dollar was up 0.07% at 111.14 yen. The dollar index was helped by a weaker euro. The single currency was down 0.06% at $1.0759. Fed member Charles Evans voiced support for one or two more rate hikes this year. Fellow Fed member Eric Rosengren argued the case for up to four hikes this year to stop U.S. economy over-heating. The final reading of U.S. Q4 GDP is due out later in the session. Growth is forecast to be revised upward to 2.0% from a previous reading of 1.9%. Initial weekly jobless claims are expected to fall. The Trump administration reiterated its intention to unveil a $1 trillion infrastructure spending program later this year. The pound was steady at the $1.24 as U.K. triggered Article 50 for the U.K. to leave the EU.

Gold lower in Asia but support from India, China eyed

Gold prices edged lower in Asia on Thursday with demand prospects in the world's top two importers, China and India, in focus with physical and exchange traded fund demand on hopes tax reform by New Delhi could cut the cost of bullion imports and as Chinese buyers seek a hedge for a weaker currency. Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 0.14% to $1,251.90 a troy ounce. Copper futures on the Comex were last quoted at $2.676 a pound. Overnight, gold prices traded modestly lower on Wednesday, weighed by a rise in the dollar, which continued to recover from multi-month lows, after the release of upbeat economic data. Gold prices dipped to a session low of $1,246.50, as stronger than expected U.S. home sales data supported the narrative of a stronger U.S. economy, which pushed the dollar to session highs. The U.S. National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales increased by 5.5% last month, which was far above economists’ forecast of a 2.4% increase. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 on Wednesday, the legal process by which Britain will leave the EU. Article 50 gives the leaving country two years to negotiate an exit deal and once it's triggered, it can't be stopped except by unanimous consent of all member states. Elsewhere, investors mulled over comments from Federal Reserve officials, as Fed member Charles Evans said Wednesday, he has confidence that two total rate increases in 2017 seems “very safe”. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren took a somewhat bullish outlook on possible rate hikes, after he said the U.S. central bank should be prepared to raise interest rates a total of four times in 2017 to prevent the U.S. economy from overheating. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. interest rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

Oil edges up on Libya disruptions, but bloated U.S. market still weighs

Oil prices edged up on Thursday, extending two days of increases as supply disruptions in Libya lifted the market, although bloated U.S. crude inventories curbed gains. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures (LCOc1), the international benchmark for oil, were at $52.53 per barrel at 0445 GMT, up 11 cents from their last close. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) rose 19 cents to $49.70 a barrel. The increases extended two days of gains which supported Brent well above $50 a barrel and lifted WTI within sight of that level. Traders said supply disruptions in Libya were lifting the market and that falling U.S. gasoline inventories pointed to a tightening market there despite record crude stocks. "Production issues ... deepened, with Libyan oil output falling to about 500,000 barrels per day due to the shutdown of pipelines from its biggest field," ANZ bank said on Thursday. And while a rise in U.S. crude inventories weighed, ANZ said that "big falls in gasoline inventories, coming near the end of the refinery maintenance season, suggest crude oil inventories are on the cusp of declining". U.S. gasoline stocks fell 3.7 million barrels in the week ending March 24, compared with expectations for a 1.9-million barrel drop, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories , however, rose 867,000 barrels to a record of nearly 534 million barrels. Key for the direction of oil prices will be whether an initiative led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil production during the first half of the year will be extended, and how high compliance with the reduction targets will be. OPEC, along with other producers including Russia, aims to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year. OPEC compliance with its targets is expected to be 95 percent this month, up from 94 percent in February, according to Reuters surveys. However, compliance could be lower by non-OPEC members like Russia, who have officially agreed to participate in the cuts. "Russia's 300,000 bpd cut commitment particularly has been called into question," Eurasia Group said this week in a research report. "While it remains possible Russia can scrape together a combination of outages and natural decline at some west Siberian brownfields and spin this as a 300,000-bpd output cut, it is highly unlikely Russia will achieve an absolute 300,000 bpd reduction during the tenure of the current agreement," it added. As markets remain bloated halfway into the curbs, there is a broad expectation that the supply cuts will be extended into the second half of the year.

North Dakota oil output set to rise as controversial pipeline opens

North Dakota oil production will get a shot in the arm next month as a pipeline comes online despite opposition by environmental groups and Native Americans, allowing the energy industry to save at least $540 million in annual shipping costs. The Dakota Access Pipeline gives the state's producers cheaper access to refineries and other customers on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Market players said they expect this will hasten a revival of output from the Bakken region which fell sharply along with global oil prices during the past two years. "We're back to growth in the Bakken," Hess Corp (N:HES) Chief Executive Officer John Hess said in a recent interview. The New York-based company has contracts to send roughly half its daily North Dakota output through DAPL. For 2017, Hess has said its Bakken production could grow more than 10 percent. President Donald Trump approved the $3.7 billion pipeline in February, reversing the prior administration which had blocked it last December with a decision by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Energy Transfer Partners LP (N:ETP), which operates the 1,100 mile (1,770 km) long DAPL, has begun filling the line with crude and could reach full operating capacity by late April, based on industry estimates. DAPL "will provide a safer, more environmentally responsible and more cost-effective transportation system to move crude across this country as opposed to truck or rail," said ETP spokeswoman Vicki Granado. The pipeline will carry about 500,000 barrels of oil per day, more than half of North Dakota's daily output, cutting reliance on riskier rail-cars and reducing transport cost by roughly $3 to $5 per barrel, analysts estimate. That should help level the playing field between Bakken producers and rivals in other U.S. shale plays, many of which are closer to refineries and other customers. "Economics for drilling in the Bakken will look better because of DAPL," Rusty Braziel of RBN Energy consultants in Houston, said in an interview. The state's drilling rig count has jumped 40 percent since early February, when Trump gave final approval to the pipeline. By the end of the year, analysts expect the rig count to rise another 10 percent or more. DAPL's opponents say they will continue to oppose the line and oil production across North Dakota, which pumps more crude each day than any state but Texas. "Just because oil flow is pending does not mean that it cannot be stopped by court order, and we have a strong, ongoing case in front of the courts," said David Archambault II, chairman of North Dakota's Standing Rock Sioux tribe, which lives adjacent to the line. OUTLOOK Transportation savings from DAPL are a key factor oil companies are considering when deciding whether to boost production, executives, analysts and investors said. Hess plans to triple the number of drilling rigs it operates in North Dakota this year. The company will move the 30 percent of its existing Bakken production from rail to pipeline once DAPL opens. Oasis Petroleum Inc (N:OAS), another large Bakken producer, said its 2017 output could rise more than 30 percent. DAPL "is definitely going to give us more options to get our product to market," Oasis Chief Executive Officer Tommy Nusz said in an interview. Whiting Petroleum Corp (N:WLL), the state's largest oil producer, does not contract for space on DAPL, nor does Continental Resources Inc (N:CLR), the second-largest. But Continental expects DAPL to ease a transport bottleneck out of the state and open room on other pipelines, allowing it to stop using rail. Both Whiting and Continental have projected production to rise more than 20 percent this year. The companies did not respond to requests for comment. North Dakota's oil production fell 13 percent in the last 12 months for which data are available to about 980,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to low prices. While the expected jump in 2017 output likely won't return output to its 2015 peak, it could help statewide production again rise above 1 million barrels per day. Another reason for rising production is that higher prices have prompted many companies to hedge, or sell forward, some of their output, which bolsters confidence. Whiting and Oasis, for example, have hedged more than half of 2017 production. But the state's producers say that DAPL's opening, after months of uncertainty, gives them confidence they can ship their product to market. "We have to have a more pragmatic approach to infrastructure development in this country," said Hess.

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Oil edges up as Saudis cut supplies to U.S., but global glut remains

Oil prices edged up on Friday, supported by a fall in Saudi exports to the United States, but overall markets remained under pressure on the back of a world market awash with fuel. Benchmark Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were at $50.69 per barrel at 0756 GMT, up 13 cents or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were up 18 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $47.88 a barrel. Brent was heading for a weekly fall of about 2.1 percent, while WTI was off about 1.9 percent. Traders said the increase came as Saudi Arabia said its crude exports to the United States would fall by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) between February and March. In the United States, overseas oil suppliers like Saudi Arabia have to compete against rising shale drilling, which has pushed up U.S. oil production by more than 8 percent since mid-2016 to just above 9.1 million bpd. To other major consumer regions, however, Saudi exports remain high despite an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and supported by other producers including Russia, to cut output by 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year. Data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that OPEC shipments to Asia, the world's biggest and fastest growing oil consuming region, were at 17.6 million bpd in March, up more than 5 percent since January, when the cuts officially started, in a sign that OPEC is shielding its main customers from the supply reductions. Unless OPEC extends the curbs beyond June or makes bigger cuts, traders say oil prices are at risk of falling further. "OPEC's goal of drawing down inventories to normal levels is not going to be reached before their agreement expires on June 30," said U.S. investment bank Jefferies in a note to clients. Dennis Gartman, founder and editor of the Gartman Letter said the longer term outlook was for ongoing low oil prices. "This slump is very real ... Fracking has only just begun here in the U.S. and it will be transferred swiftly to other countries abroad, so the supply of crude oil is going to increase rather dramatically in the years to come," he told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Friday. Despite the OPEC-led cuts that began in January, Brent has fallen by over 13 percent from its 2017 highs in early January as other producers have stepped up and filled the gap.

Gold prices slip lower as U.S. dollar rebounds

Gold prices slipped lower on Friday, as the U.S. dollar regained some strength ahead of a highly-anticipated vote on U.S. President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery were down 0.28% at $1,243.85, just off the previous session’s three-week high of $1.253,15. The April contract ended Thursday’s session 0.20% lower at $1,247.20 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $1,226.40, the low of March 23 and resistance at $1,253,15, Thursday’s high. The dollar regained some strength as the vote on the U.S. administration’s healthcare bill was postponed on Thursday and rescheduled for Friday. Trump warned House Republican lawmakers that he will leave Obamacare in place and move on to tax reform if they do not approve new legislation on Friday. The healthcare vote is seen by investors as a test of his ability to implement key campaign promises such as tax reform and infrastructure spending. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.15% at 99.71, pulling away from Wednesday’s six-week low of 99.34. A strong U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Market participants were looking ahead to a string of manufacturing and service sector activity data from the euro zone, due later in the day as well as U.S. data on durable goods orders. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for May delivery were little changed at $17.589 a troy ounce, while copper futures for May delivery fell 0.25% to $2.638 a pound.

Forex - Dollar higher but upside limited ahead of U.S. healthcare vote

The dollar moved higher against other major currencies on Friday, but gains were expected to remain limited as uncertainty over whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill will be approved continued to weigh. EUR/USD edged down 0.14% to 1.0768. Sentiment on the dollar remained vulnerable after Trump warned House Republican lawmakers that he will leave Obamacare in place and move on to tax reform if they do not approve new healthcare legislation in a vote on Friday. The healthcare vote is seen by investors as a test of his ability to implement key campaign promises such as tax reform and infrastructure spending. Market participants were looking ahead to a string of manufacturing and service sector activity data from the euro zone, due later in the day as well as U.S. data on durable goods orders. GBP/USD slid 0.32% to trade at 1.2480, off the previous session’s one-month peak of 1.2532. The pound was boosted on Thursday by a stronger than expected rise in U.K. retail sales last month. USD/JPY gained 0.34% to 111.31, off Thursday’s four-month trough of 110.63. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.15% at 99.71, off Wednesday’s six-week low of 99.34

Dollar higher as U.S. healthcare vote delayed

The dollar was higher Friday as a House vote on a Republican U.S. healthcare bill was delayed. The greenback was underpinned by a renewed rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar index was up 0.21% at 99.77 at 03:15 ET. The healthcare bill vote was rescheduled for Friday as the Trump administration struggled to win over doubting Republicans. Trump reportedly has threatened to drop the bill, leave Obamacare in place and move on to tax reform. The healthcare bill is seen as a litmus test of Trump's future ability to push ahead with his pro-growth agenda. The dollar was up 0.39% at 111.36 yen as Japanese PM Shinzo Abe became embroiled in a land deal scandal. Theeuro retreated from the $1.08 mark ahead of PMI data. The pound fell in the wake of the terrorist attack in London.

Dollar edges up as yields rise but Trump policy concerns cap gains

The dollar edged up against the yen and euro on Friday, pulling away from recent lows, but gains were capped as investors focused on a showdown between U.S. President Donald Trump and members of his own party over a new healthcare bill. Trump warned House Republican lawmakers that he will leave Obamacare in place and move on to tax reform if they do not get behind new healthcare legislation and support it in a vote on Friday. Postponement of the vote from Thursday initially knocked the dollar and stock markets, but the dollar was given breathing space as Treasury yields turned higher after Wall Street shares trimmed losses to close little changed. Equities in Asia took heart and firmed on Friday, with Japan's Nikkei (N225) rising 1 percent. "The dollar had been sold on the assumption that the healthcare bill would not pass, but some of those positions look to have been unwound. The market focus appears to have shifted to how Trump can pass the bill, from if he can push the bill through," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager for State Street Bank and Trust in Tokyo. "U.S. yields are higher and it's not hard for dollar/yen to attract bids. It is often overlooked but the dollar continues to enjoy underlying support from widening U.S.-Japanese interest rate spreads." The dollar was up 0.35 percent at 111.340 yen , pulling back from a four-month low of 110.620 struck overnight. The U.S. currency was still on track for a 1.2 percent loss against its the yen this week, during which the safe-haven yen benefited from equity market volatility. The yen has also gained from a scandal involving a land deal that has chipped away support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. While that may appear counterintuitive, the yen has been a safe-haven of choice even when risk events originate domestically. The currency rallied when a devastating earthquake struck Japan in March 2011 and triggered a nuclear disaster, prompting an intervention by Tokyo to arrest its surge. VOTE WAIT CONTINUES The healthcare vote, which had been expected to be an early legislative win for Trump, is seen by investors as a litmus test for his ability to work with Congress and push through key policies such as tax reform and infrastructure spending. "Even if the bill happens to be passed, any bounce by the dollar is likely to be limited. There are plenty of other issues Trump has to contend with going forward, such as tax reforms," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. The dollar index (DXY) against a basket of major currencies was up 0.2 percent at 99.941. It was on track to lose 0.35 percent this week, during which it stooped to a seven-week low of 99.547. The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.0765 . The common currency, which advanced to a seven-week peak of $1.0825 on Wednesday, was headed for a 0.3 percent weekly gain. The pound was down 0.3 percent at $1.2490 . It scaled a one-month high of $1.2532 overnight on upbeat British retail sales data. The Australian dollar fell to an eight-day low of $0.7610 following a decline in the price of iron ore, the country's key export product.

Gold falls in Asia as Trump ready for showdown vote

Gold prices drifted weaker on Friday in Asia on political risk concerns as a dramatic inter-party showdown loomed in the U.S. as the votes needed to replace the Obama-era healthcare law fell short on Thursday and President Donald Trump's office said he was "done negotiating" and wanted an up-or-down decision on Friday. Republican leaders failed to rally enough support to pass the GOP bill in a planned Thursday vote in the House. At a Republican House caucus meeting Thursday night, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said that if Trump does not get a vote on the proposal, he will move on to other priorities and leave the ACA, also known as Obamacare, in place. Earlier, House Majority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy told CNN that House debate on the bill will start Friday morning. Later, House Speaker Paul Ryan issued a terse statement: "We have been promising" this, and "tomorrow we're proceeding." Members of the Freedom Caucus, Republican legislators, however vow to vote "no." Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.28% to $1,243.75 a troy ounce, while copper traded dropped 0.98% at $2.625 as a cloudy supply picture appears to have been resolved in the case of a major mine. A strike at BHP Billiton (LON:BLT)'s Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world's largest copper mine, is expected to end after workers decided to invoke a rarely used legal provision to allow them to extend their old contract Overnight, gold prices traded lower on Thursday, after the dollar steadied, amid a mixed batch of U.S. economic data, ahead of a key House vote on a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. Gold prices pulled back from a session high of $1,253.15 in early morning U.S. trade weighed by a rise in the dollar, as new home sales data confounded expectations while initial jobless claims rose faster than expected. The Commerce Department said on Thursday new home sales increased 6.1 % to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units last month compared to expectations of a 0.7% increase to 565,000 units. Elsewhere, initial jobless claims increased by 15,000 to 258,000 in the week ending March 18 from the previous week’s revised total of 243,000 against analysts’ expectations of a drop by 1,000 to 240,000.

Crude gains in Asia as producers meeting, rig count eyed

Crude prices gained in Asia on Friday with sentiment cautious ahead of a weekend meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers to review compliance with an output cut agreement and as the U.S. reports rig count data. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for May delivery rose 0.19% to $47.79 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent gained 0.10% to $50.61 a barrel. Market participants turn attention to Baker Hughes rig count, due to be released on Friday at 14:00 EDT. Overnight, crude futures settled lower on Thursday, as investors continued to fret about growing U.S. crude inventories to record levels. Crude futures sustained a fourth straight day of losses amid fears record U.S. crude inventories could offset The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) efforts to rebalance supply and demand. Despite OPEC’s high level of compliance with agreed production cuts last November, non-OPEC producers that joined the global deal to reduce output have yet to fully implement production cuts while U.S. crude inventories swelled to record highs. Eleven non-OPEC oil producers that joined a global deal to reduce output to boost prices delivered 64% of promised cuts in February, an industry source said last Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose to an all-time high of 533.1 million barrels for the week ended March 15, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) said Wednesday. Crude prices have continued to fall and are on track to end the week close to levels not seen since the OPEC deal on Nov 30

Oil edges up as Saudis cut supplies to U.S., but global glut remains

Oil prices edged up on Friday, supported by a fall in Saudi exports to the United States, but overall markets remained under pressure on the back of a world market awash with fuel. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures (LCOc1), the international benchmark for oil, were at $50.63 per barrel at 0343 GMT, up 7 cents from their last close. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) were up 12 cents at $47.82 a barrel. Traders said the lift in prices came as a report that Saudi Arabia's crude exports to the United States in March would fall by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) from February, in line with OPEC's agreement to reduce supply. "We have turned bullish ... over a three-month time horizon ... on the premise of strong stock draws in Q2 2017 and firm OPEC, non-OPEC compliance," BMI Research said in a note to clients. In the United States, overseas oil suppliers like Saudi Arabia have to compete against rising shale drilling, which has pushed up U.S. oil production by more than 8 percent since mid-2016 to just above 9.1 million bpd. To other major consumer regions, however, Saudi exports remain high despite an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and supported by other producers including Russia, to cut output by 1.8 million bpd during the first half of the year to rein in a global supply. Ship chartering and trading data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that OPEC shipments to Asia, the world's biggest and fastest growing oil consuming region, were at 17.6 million bpd in March, up more than 5 percent since January, when the cuts officially started, in a sign that OPEC is shielding its main customers from the supply reductions. Unless OPEC extends the curbs beyond June or makes bigger cuts, traders say oil prices are at risk of falling further. "The market is keen to see further progress on production cuts to alleviate the still growing stockpiles," ANZ bank said on Friday. Dennis Gartman, founder and editor of the Gartman Letter said the longer term outlook was for ongoing low oil prices. "This slump is very real ... Fracking has only just begun here in the U.S. and it will be transferred swiftly to other countries abroad, so the supply of crude oil is going to increase rather dramatically in the years to come," he told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on Friday. Despite the OPEC-led cuts that began in January, Brent has fallen by nearly 11 percent this year as other producers have stepped up and filled the gap.

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Oil off 1% on inventory build-up

Oil Wednesday extended overnight losses as industry data showed a build-up in U.S. crude stocks. U.S. crude was off 65 cents, or 1.35%, at $47.59 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude shed 73 cents, or 1.43%, to $50.23. American Petroleum Institute weekly data Tuesday showed an increase of 4.5 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks to 533.6 million. Energy Information Administration figures are forecast to show a rise in crude inventories of 2.8 million barrels. U.S. oil output has risen to 9.1 million barrels a day from 8.5 million in June of last year. High inventories and the increase in U.S. production are undermining the impact of agreed output cuts by major producers. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half.

Gold rises to 3-week high as doubts grow over Trump's policies

Gold prices traded at a three-week high during North American hours on Wednesday, as investors grew concerned that the Trump administration will fail to deliver on its pro-growth promises. Comex gold futures touched a session high of $1,249.05 a troy ounce, the highest since February 28. It was last at $1,247.95 by 8:55AM ET (12:55GMT), up around $1.50, or about 0.1%. It settled higher for the fourth session in a row on Tuesday, as risk-averse investors sought safer investments amid a weak dollar and tumbling U.S. equities. Meanwhile, spot gold was up $2.95 at $1,247.60 per ounce. Headlines from Washington will continue to be in focus, as House Republicans are expected to vote on repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act on Thursday, with the votes needed for passage in doubt. The Freedom Caucus, a key group of House Republicans, threatened to issue a formal statement of opposition to the Obamacare replacement bill, which would delay the vote, unless the language in the bill changes dramatically. Investors see the Trump administration's struggles to push through the healthcare overhaul as a sign he may also face setbacks delivering on the promises for tax cuts, regulatory reform and infrastructure spending. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 99.62 in New York morning trade, after falling to a seven-week low of 99.45 overnight. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields traded lower, with the benchmark 10-Year note yield extending its decline to a three-week low of 2.396%. The greenback, along with Treasury yields, have been on the retreat since the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday last week, but stuck to its outlook for two more hikes this year, instead of three expected by the market. Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery shed 3.6 cents, or about 0.2%, to $17.54 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, platinum slumped 0.2% to $970.05, while palladium added 0.6% to $792.17 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures dropped 1.7 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.602 a pound

U.S. natural gas pulls back from 5-week high

U.S. natural gas futures fell for the first time in four sessions on Wednesday, pulling back from the strongest level since February as traders continued to monitor shifting early-spring weather forecasts. U.S. natural gas for April delivery dropped 4.8 cents, or around 1.6% to $3.045 per million British thermal units by 9:50AM ET (13:50GMT). It settled higher for the third session in a row on Tuesday after hitting its strongest since February 9 at $3.113. Warm to mild conditions will dominate most of the U.S. this weekend, even as a spring-like weather system with heavy showers and thunderstorms impacts the central U.S. Next week will be mostly mild to warm across the country with limited demand for heating or cooling besides the far northern U.S., according to forecasters at NatGasWeather.com. Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to weekly storage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw of 147 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 17. That compares with a withdrawal of 53 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, a build of 15 billion a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 21 billion cubic feet. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.295 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 7.7% lower than levels at this time a year ago but 15.8% above the five-year average for this time of year. Prices of the heating fuel are down around 18% so far this year as forecasts for warm winter weather weighed on heating demand expectations. Based on data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, this year’s extremely warm winter has pushed heating demand for natural gas to nearly 20% below average. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heating. Without significant demand for natural gas, inventories could stay near record levels and may even continue to pull prices even lower.

Forex - Dollar weaker in Asia, Japan trade, BoJ noted

The dollar drifted mostly weaker in Asia on Wednesday as markets noted views from a key Fed policymaker on the interest rate outlook and mulled stronger than expected Japan trade figures. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was quoted flat at 99.55. USD/JPY fell 0.07% to 111.64 after Japan reported exports in February rose 11.3%, beating a 10.6% gain expected, while imports rose 1.2%, double the 0.6% rise seen for the third straight month of increases. AUD/USD traded at 0.7671, down 0.26%, while GBP/USD was flat at 1.2479. At the same time, minutes from the Bank of Japan's January policy meeting signaled sentiment on the nine-member board that companies will modetly raise prices and wages to reflect better confidence in the economy. Most board members also rejected any move for the BoJ to raise its 10-year government bond yield target. The BoJ raised its growth projections in January and maintained its pledge to guide short-term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year government bond yield around zero percent. Elsewhere, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that she currently envisages more than three U.S. interest rate hikes for this year. "I actually built into my forecast more than three as I have the economy a bit stronger than the median forecast," Mester told reporters following an event in Richmond, Virginia. Overnight, the dollar slumped against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve’s dovish comments concerning rate hikes continued to weigh on sentiment while sterling and the euro surged. The dollar dived to a six-week low, as better than expected economic data failed to lift sentiment while a surge in sterling and euro heaped further pressure on the greenback. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday, the current account deficit, which measures the difference in value between exported goods, services and interest payments, fell 3.1% to $112.4 billion. Economists had expected the current account deficit to shrink to $128.2 billion. Meanwhile, FOMC member William Dudley spoke at an event in New York City, but did not discuss monetary policy. Elsewhere, sterling and the euro surged against the greenback during the session, after better than expected UK inflation data propped up the pound while the euro gained on the back of growing optimism that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron would see off the challenge from anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen in the French presidential race.

Forex - Dollar bounces off 6-week trough but remains under pressure

The dollar bounced off six-week lows against other major currencies on Wednesday, but remained under pressure as signals pointing to a slower pace of rate hikes in the U.S. continued to weigh. EUR/USD slipped 0.19% to 1.0790, off the previous session’s six-week high of 1.0822. The greenback weakened after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Monday that the Fed is on track to raise rates twice more this year, underlining the view that the central bank will stick to a gradual pace of tightening after last week’s rate hike. The dollar was also vulnerable after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open during talks this weekend, following opposition from the increasingly protectionist Trump administration. The move renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade relations and by extension the Trump administration’s concerns over the strong dollar. The single currency had strengthened after centrist Emmanuel Macron appeared to come out on top in a televised debate against his main rival, far-right anti-EU leader Marine Le Pen. However concerns resurfaced when the Financial Times reported that center-right candidate Francois Fillon is now facing claims he allegedly sought to profit financially from ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Elsewhere, GBP/USD edged down 0.10% to 1.2466, after hitting a three-and-a-hald week high of 1.2506 overnight. USD/JPY declined 0.37% to trade at 111.31, the lowest since November 23, while USD/CHF held steady at 0.9936. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.43% at 0.7658 and with NZD/USD shedding 0.20% to 0.7026. Meanwhile, USD/CAD gained 0.32% to trade at a one-week high of 1.3395. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.11% at 99.66, just off a six-week trough of 99.45 hit overnight.

Forex - USD/CAD trims gains, pulls back from 1-week highs

The U.S. dollar trimmed gains against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, pulling back from a one-week high, as signs of a slower pace of rate hikes in the U.S. continued to weigh on the greenback, while declining oil prices dampened demand for the Canadian currency. USD/CAD pulled back from 1.3409, the pair’s highest since March 15, to hit 1.3394 during early U.S. trade, still up 0.31%. The pair was likely to find support at 1.3262, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 1.3487, the high of March 15. The greenback weakened after Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Monday that the Fed is on track to raise rates twice more this year, underlining the view that the central bank will stick to a gradual pace of tightening after last week’s rate hike. The dollar was also vulnerable after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open during talks this weekend, following opposition from the increasingly protectionist Trump administration. The move renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade relations and by extension the Trump administration’s concerns over the strong dollar. But the commodity-related Canadian dollar was also under pressure as oil prices turned sharply lower on Wednesday, after data overnight showed another increase in U.S. crude supplies. The loonie was lower against the euro, with EUR/CAD adding 0.19% at 1.4463.

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cad chf buy@ 0.74261 sl 0.74000target 0.74600

Gold dips in Asia as Fed policymaker views on rates shrugged off

Gold prices dipped in Asia on Wednesday despite hawkish comments on the rate outlook by a Fed policymaker. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that she currently envisages more than three U.S. interest rate hikes for this year. "I actually built into my forecast more than three as I have the economy a bit stronger than the median forecast," Mester told reporters. Gold for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.10% to $1,245.25 a troy ounce. Silver futures dipped 0.23% to $17.543 a troy ounce while copper was last quoted at $2.609 a pound. Overnight, gold prices traded higher despite better than expected economic data. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday, the current account deficit, which measures the difference in value between exported good, service and interest payments, fell 3.1% to $112.4 billion. Economists had expected the current account deficit to shrink to $128.2 billion. Meanwhile, a slump in dollar continued to lend support to gold prices, after the US Dollar Index dipped below the 100 level, hitting a 6-week low of 99.50, as the Federal Reserve’s somewhat dovish statement on rate hikes last week, continued to weigh on the greenback. Elsewhere, investors welcomed the first round of Federal Reserve speakers, after the U.S. Central Bank raised rates last Wednesday. FOMC member William Dudley spoke at an event in New York City, but did not discuss monetary policy.

Oil prices fall on bloated U.S. crude storage

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as rising crude stocks in the United States underscored an ongoing global fuel supply overhang despite an OPEC-led effort to cut output. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil, were at $50.89 per barrel at 0228 GMT (10.28 p.m ET), down 7 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 10 cents at $48.14 a barrel. "Crude oil prices fell as concerns over rising U.S. inventories resurfaced," ANZ bank said on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil inventories climbed by 4.5 million barrels in the week to March 17 to 533.6 million, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said late on Tuesday. "The American Petroleum Institutes' crude inventories stuck the knife into crude overnight, coming in at a 4.5 million barrel increase against an expected increase of 2.8 million barrels," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore. "If the API stuck the knife in, tonight's EIA Crude Inventory figures may twist it. A blowout above the 2.1 million barrel increase expected, may well torpedo oil below the waterline," he added. Official U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil storage data is due on Wednesday. The bloated storage comes as U.S. oil production has risen over 8 percent since mid-2016 to more than 9.1 million barrels per day (bpd), levels comparable to late 2014, when the oil market slump started. Rising production in the United States and elsewhere, and bloated inventories, are undermining efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut output and prop up prices. "2017-19 is likely to see the largest increase in mega projects production in history," Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Led by U.S. shale, (this) could create a material oversupply in 2018-19. As OPEC prepares for its May 25 meeting, it is likely to weigh the relative benefit of stability (extend the cut) versus the risk of long-term (market) share loss," the bank added.

Forex - Canadian dollar hits 3-week highs after upbeat retail sales

The Canadian dollar rose to three week highs against its broadly weaker U.S. counterpart on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected domestic retail sales data and as prices of oil, a major Canadian export, rose. USD/CAD was down 0.55% at 1.3275 by 09.30 ET, the lowest level since February 28. Retail sales jumped 2.2% in January, the largest increase in almost seven years, boosted by auto sales, Statistics Canada said. Economists had expected a 1.1% increase. Coming after strong wholesales trade and manufacturing figures for January the report reinforced the view that the Canadian economy started 2017 on a strong footing. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is also known, received an additional boost as oil prices rose on the back of expectations that OPEC-led output cuts, aimed at curbing a global supply glut would be extended past June. The greenback remained broadly weaker, pressured lower by the view that the Federal Reserve won’t speed up the pace of monetary tightening. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday the Fed is on track to raise rates twice more this year, underlining the view that the central bank will stick to a gradual pace of tightening after last week’s rate hike. The dollar was also on the defensive after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open from a policy statement at the weekend, following opposition from the increasingly protectionist Trump administration. The move renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade relations and by extension the Trump administration’s concerns over the strong dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.57% at 99.59, its weakest since February 3.

Dollar slumps; sterling and euro hit highs

The dollar slumped against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve’s dovish comments concerning rate hikes continued to weigh on sentiment while sterling and the euro surged. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, tumbled 0.68% to 99.48 by 13:22 EDT. The dollar dived to a six-week low, as better than expected economic data failed to lift sentiment while a surge in sterling and euro heaped further pressure on the greenback. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday, the current account deficit, which measures the difference in value between exported goods, services and interest payments, fell 3.1% to $112.4 billion. Economists had expected the current account deficit to shrink to $128.2 billion. Meanwhile, investors welcomed the first round of Federal Reserve speakers, after the U.S. Central Bank raised rates last Wednesday. FOMC member William Dudley spoke at an event in New York City, but did not discuss monetary policy while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is due to make an appearance later during the session. Elsewhere, sterling and the euro surged against the greenback during the session, after better than expected UK inflation data propped up the pound while the euro gained on the back of growing optimism that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron would see off the challenge from anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen in the French presidential race. GBP/USD rose 1.06% to $1.2491 while EUR/USD traded 0.7% higher to $1.0814. Meanwhile, the dollar bucked its trend lower against the yen with USD/JPY 0.68% lower at 111.80 while USD/CAD fell 0.21% to $1.3323.

Forex - Dollar weaker in Asia, Japan trade, BoJ noted

The dollar drifted mostly weaker in Asia on Wednesday as markets noted views from a key Fed policymaker on the interest rate outlook and mulled stronger than expected Japan trade figures. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was quoted flat at 99.55. USD/JPY fell 0.07% to 111.64 after Japan reported exports in February rose 11.3%, beating a 10.6% gain expected, while imports rose 1.2%, double the 0.6% rise seen for the third straight month of increases. AUD/USD traded at 0.7671, down 0.26%, while GBP/USD was flat at 1.2479. At the same time, minutes from the Bank of Japan's January policy meeting signaled sentiment on the nine-member board that companies will modetly raise prices and wages to reflect better confidence in the economy. Most board members also rejected any move for the BoJ to raise its 10-year government bond yield target. The BoJ raised its growth projections in January and maintained its pledge to guide short-term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent and the 10-year government bond yield around zero percent. Elsewhere, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that she currently envisages more than three U.S. interest rate hikes for this year. "I actually built into my forecast more than three as I have the economy a bit stronger than the median forecast," Mester told reporters following an event in Richmond, Virginia. Overnight, the dollar slumped against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve’s dovish comments concerning rate hikes continued to weigh on sentiment while sterling and the euro surged. The dollar dived to a six-week low, as better than expected economic data failed to lift sentiment while a surge in sterling and euro heaped further pressure on the greenback. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday, the current account deficit, which measures the difference in value between exported goods, services and interest payments, fell 3.1% to $112.4 billion. Economists had expected the current account deficit to shrink to $128.2 billion. Meanwhile, FOMC member William Dudley spoke at an event in New York City, but did not discuss monetary policy. Elsewhere, sterling and the euro surged against the greenback during the session, after better than expected UK inflation data propped up the pound while the euro gained on the back of growing optimism that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron would see off the challenge from anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen in the French presidential race.

gold book and exit its already maid high @1241

all target s completed

Forex - Dollar index extends losses, touches 6-week lows

The dollar extended losses against the other major currencies on Tuesday, pressured lower by the view that the Federal Reserve won’t accelerate the pace of monetary tightening. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.49% at 99.67 at 09.19 ET, its weakest since February 6. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday the Fed is on track to raise rates twice more this year, underlining the view that the central bank will stick to a gradual pace of tightening after last week’s rate hike. The dollar was also on the defensive after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open from a policy statement at the weekend, following opposition from the increasingly protectionist Trump administration. The move renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade relations and by extension the Trump administration’s concerns over the strong dollar. The euro hit six-week highs as concerns over the French presidential elections eased, with EUR/USD advancing 0.59% to 1.0802, its highest level since February 2. Opinion polls showed that Emmanuel Macron consolidated his status as frontrunner in France's presidential election in a televised debate on Monday against his main rival, far-right anti-EU leader Marine Le Pen. Le Pen has pledged to take France out of the euro and hold a referendum on EU membership. Sterling rose to three-week highs, with GBP/USD up 0.75% to 1.2452 after data showing that the annual rate of inflation in the UK rose to the highest since September 2013 in February. The euro was slightly lower against the pound following the inflation report, with EUR/GBP down 0.16% at 0.8674. The dollar was little changed against the yen, with USD/JPY at 112.54 after falling as low as 112.29 overnight, its weakest since February 28. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar hit the day’s highs after stronger-than-expected domestic retail sales data and as prices of oil, a major Canadian export, rose. USD/CAD was down 0.49% at 1.3283, not far from the two-week lows of 1.3275 set on March 16.

Dollar index slips below 100 after Fed speak

The dollar slipped Tuesday as Fed members signaled a slower pace of tightening than the market had been expecting. The dollar index was off 0.22% at 99.94 at 03:30 ET after a high of 100.18. Fed member Charles Evans indicated he would be comfortable with a total of three hikes this year if the U.S. economy remains on track. Fed member Neel Kashkari warned against rushing to raise rates. Kashkari was the sole dissenter in the FOMC's decision last week to raise its target range to 0.75%-1.0%. More Fed members are due to speak later Tuesday. Chair Janet Yellen speaks Thursday. The euro was firm above $1.07 after the French presidential elections debate on Monday. Centrist Emmanuel Macron emerged with his status as the front-runner intact. The pound steadied as Britain set to trigger Article 50 to leave the EU on March 29. U.K. inflation data are due for release later in the session

Forex - Dollar stays on the defensive, euro hits 6-week highs

The dollar remained on the back foot on Tuesday amid the view that the Federal Reserve won’t speed up the pace of monetary tightening, while the euro hit six-week highs as concerns over France’s presidential elections eased. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.27% at 99.89. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said Monday the Fed is on track to raise rates twice more this year, disappointing some investors who had hoped for a faster rate of tightening. The Fed hiked rates last week, and reiterated that the future pace of rate hikes would be gradual. Heading into the meeting, dollar bulls had braced for a potentially more hawkish tone from the central bank. The dollar also came under selling pressure after G20 financial leaders dropped a pledge to keep global trade free and open from a policy statement at the weekend, following opposition from the increasingly protectionist Trump administration. The move renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade relations and by extension the Trump administrations concerns over the strong dollar. The euro hit six-week highs, with EUR/USD advancing 0.5% to 1.0792, its highest level since February 3. The single currency was boosted after opinion polls showed that Emmanuel Macron consolidated his status as frontrunner in France's presidential election in a televised debate against his main rival, far-right anti-EU leader Marine Le Pen. Le Pen has pledged to take France out of the euro and hold a referendum on EU membership. Sterling was also higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.24% to 1.2388 ahead of a UK inflation report expected to show that inflation has returned to its 2% target as Britain braces for Brexit to be triggered on March 29. The dollar pushed higher against the yen, with USD/JPY adding 0.15% to trade at 112.73 after falling as low as 112.29 overnight, its weakest since February 28.

Bullish dollar bets seen fully unwound: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Bullish bets on the dollar spurred by Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win and his pledge on tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending last November have faded, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) analyst said on Tuesday. "The (dollar) positions accumulated in the build-up and immediate aftermath of the U.S. election look to have been fully unwound," Bank of America Merrill Lynch currency strategist Myria Kyriacou wrote in a note.

EUR USD TIPS

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xau usd bu above 1204sl 1198 target 1209/1213/1217

usd jpy

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eurusd signal

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usd jpy signal

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gold levels

gold support : 1199/1192/1185 gold resistance: 1210/1215/1222