buy eurusd @ 1.16400 sl 1.1600 tp 1.1700/1.2100
Monday, May 28, 2018
Monday, April 23, 2018
Monday, April 9, 2018
Thursday, April 5, 2018
NZD/USD facing upside pressure – UOB
24-hour view: “We expected a higher NZD yesterday but did not anticipate a break above last week’s 0.7304 top. NZD managed to move above this level to touch 0.7311 before ending the day just below the high. Upward momentum has improved considerably and further gains would not be surprising. However, last month’s top at 0.7355 is a major resistance and for today, a clear break of this level seems unlikely (minor resistance is at 0.7330). On the downside, 0.7270 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 0.7290)”.
Next 1-3 weeks: “NZD rose strongly and moved above the top of our previously expected 0.7150/0.7305 consolidation range (overnight high of 0.7311). Despite the strong rise, we are not convinced that the current price action is the start of a bullish phase. That said, the immediate pressure has shifted to the upside and a move above last month’s 0.7355 top would not be surprising. At this stage, the prospect for further extension to the year-to-date high of 0.7437 is deemed as low (0.7400 is already a rather strong resistance). Overall, we expect NZD to stay underpinned from here as long as the key short-term support at 0.7240 is intact”.
EUR/USD: Current Situation Uncertain
On Wednesday the 4th of April, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed slightly up. Volatility was consistently high throughout the European session. Still, the exchange rates on the majors didn’t differ much from Tuesday’s closing prices.
The trade conflict between the US and China is weighing down on the dollar, while giving a boost to safe haven assets. I found it interesting that as trade relations between these two nations begin to deteriorate, negative news items are only having a short-term effect on markets. China has announced a 25% import tariff 50bn USD’s worth of American products. In response to this news, the euro shot up from 1.2258 to 1.2314, after which the pair consolidated within a range of 1.2270 – 1.2310. Moreover, stock indices have now completely recovered their losses.
Day’s news (GMT+3):
- 10:15 Switzerland: CPI (Mar).
- 10:15 Spain: Markit services PMI (Mar).
- 10:45 Italy: Markit services PMI (Mar).
- 10:50 France: Markit services PMI (Mar).
- 10:55 Germany: Markit services PMI (Mar).
- 11:00 Eurozone: Markit services PMI (Mar).
- 11:30 UK: Markit services PMI (Mar).
- 12:00 Eurozone: retail sales (Feb).
- 15:30 Canada: imports (Feb), exports (Feb).
- 15:30 USA: trade balance (Feb), initial jobless claims (30 Mar).
- 20:00 USA: FOMC member Bostic’s speech.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView
In yesterday’s trading, the euro hugged the balance line during the second half of the day. In Asia this morning, the dollar is trading up against all the majors. The euro has dropped against it to 1.2262.
I’ve adjusted my forecast by lowering my minimum to 1.2259 at the 45th degree and changing my maximum to 1.2305. Earlier today, all of the euro crosses were trading up. Now, they’re all in the red except for the EURJPY and EURAUD pairs. If we start to see a truncated formation on the hourly timeframe, this could entail a drop to 1.2231.
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